More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, raising the possibility that a greater-than-usual increase in temporary holiday hiring boosted December payrolls.
Jobless claims climbed by 24,000 to 399,000 in the week ended Jan. 7, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 46 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected 375,000. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls rose, while those receiving extended payments decreased.
Hiring by package delivery companies and retailers during the holidays to meet demand for gifts may now be giving way to an increase in dismissals. At the same time, claims figures are subject to greater volatility during this time of year, as the government has trouble adjusting the data for the seasonal swings in employment.
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Retail Sales in U.S. Rose Less Than Forecast
Sales (RSTAMOM) at U.S. retailers in December rose less than forecast, restrained by cheaper fuel prices and holiday discounting that helped hold down the value of goods sold.
The 0.1 percent gain followed a 0.4 percent advance in November that was more than initially reported, Commerce Department figures showed today. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent December rise, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Purchases excluding automobiles fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since May 2010.
Retailers like Macy’s Inc. (M) resorted to discounting early in the holiday shopping season to ensure consumers shopped for gifts amid slower wage gains and lower property values. The figures show spending eased at the end of the fourth quarter, and may raise the odds purchases will cool early this year.
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India Industrial Output Rises More Than Forecast in Sign Economy Resilient
...India’s industrial production rebounded from the worst month since March 2009, a sign consumer demand is withstanding record interest-rate increases.
Output (INPIINDY) at factories, utilities and mines increased 5.9 percent in November from a year earlier after a revised 4.7 percent decline in the previous month, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 2.1 percent gain.
Manufacturing in India and China improved in December, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index, showing the world’s fastest-growing major economies have so far been resilient to Europe’s debt crisis. Today’s data gives scope for the Reserve Bank of India to keep borrowing costs unchanged on Jan. 24 for a second straight month to help fight inflation.
“There has been an upturn in consumer spending,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Mumbai-based ratings company Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. “The RBI will keep rates on hold until inflation is firmly down.”
Sabnavis expects the central bank to leave the repurchase rate at 8.5 percent this month.
India’s rupee has gained 2.9 percent against the U.S. dollar this year after being Asia’s worst-performing currency in 2011, helping cut import costs and ease inflationary pressures. The BSE India Sensitive Index has climbed 3.8 percent since Jan. 1 after losing a quarter of its value last year.
