Monday, January 9, 2012

Retail Sales Probably Rose in December: U.S. Economy Preview

Sales (RSTAMOM) at U.S. retailers probably rose in December as Americans bought discounted holiday items, a sign the economy picked up heading into 2012, economists said before a report this week.

The projected 0.3 percent gain in purchases would follow a 0.2 percent advance in November, according to the median (RSTAMOM) forecast of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures on Jan. 12. Other data may show consumer confidence rose this month.

Retailers like Macy’s Inc. (M) spurred demand by cutting prices and extending hours to ensure consumers, strapped by falling home prices and stagnant wages, shopped for holiday gifts. A report last week showed unemployment fell to an almost three- year low and hiring accelerated, indicating an improving job market will give workers the means to sustain purchases.

“There is a little more momentum,” said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “We’re ending the year in a more positive frame of mind.”

Employers added 200,000 jobs in December, twice as many as the prior month, and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5 percent, Labor Department data showed Jan. 6. At the same time, hours worked and earnings picked up.

An improving labor market helped make for a brighter holiday shopping season. Retail sales at stores open more than a year may have gained as much as 4.5 percent in December, more than previously estimated, as shoppers pursued discounts, the International Council of Shopping Centers said in a statement last week.